Evidence-based analysis on European strategic autonomy. Filter by sector or search the archive.
For decades, Europe built its energy system on an assumption of stable, cheap supply from Russia. Pipelines carrying gas from Siberian fields to German industry and French households were treated as a purely commercial arrangement, insulated from politics. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shattered that assumption. Europe discovered, in the space of a few months, how […]
The EU’s Recovery and Resilience Facility has become a central test case for performance-based fiscal policy. Its experience offers lessons for the design of the next Multiannual Financial Framework. This column reviews evidence on the facility’s economic impact, implementation, and use of milestones and targets. It argues that the facility has supported demand, helped advance…
Defence policy is usually discussed as a national security issue, but its economic effects are often highly local. This column presents new evidence from 1,011 regions in 15 European countries suggesting that places hosting defence production and supply chain activity have a larger economic footprint than comparable places without such activity: they enjoy higher income…
The new defence investment plan is weighed down by the habits of Britain’s defence establishment. By contrast, the British public appear readier to accept change.
Supply chain disruptions have become a recurring feature of recent economic dynamics and an increasing concern in inflation policy discussions. This column argues that inflationary effects of these disruptions operate through more than higher import and transportation costs: when supply-chain bottlenecks make products harder to replenish, firms’ pricing power increases, and these price increases are…
Russia is expanding its nuclear-capable, long-range weapon systems to press Europe and fracture NATO. Europeans need to plug the gaps in their nuclear capabilities and create a strategic deterrent that can function without US support
The next Trump crisis will come. European governments facing American pressure will need to weigh the costs and benefits of their responses. Here are two scenarios to show what resistance costs, and why those costs are lower than they appear
The US under Trump will seek new ways to coerce Europe economically. Here is how Europeans can resist the pressure and emerge stronger for it.
A major ECFR poll finds the European public, in a time of rupture, thinking differently and questioning old assumptions. It reveals new political space available to their leaders (for now) and challenges them to use it
Jordan Bardella is the frontrunner in the French presidential election next year. His win would transform France’s place in Europe. This scenario shows how