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Macro & Trade

Research and insights on European resilience in Macro & Trade.

Defense July 27, 2026

The magnificent ten: A coalition of the willing to drive the EU’s next enlargement

A Team Enlargement coalition of EU member states can drive the changes needed to bring Ukraine and others into the bloc.

7 min Read
Macro & Trade July 27, 2026

Resilience is a network property: Europe’s integration test for 2050

Europe is converging on a definition of economic security as reduced dependence – de-risking, reshoring, buying European. This column argues that the definition is mistaken. Three decades of evidence on financial and production networks shows that resilience is a property of a node’s position in the network – the depth, diversity, and quality of its…

5 min Read
Macro & Trade July 22, 2026

Rebuilding the world order: Two strategies for a fragmented world

As the postwar international order fragments and universal agreement becomes increasingly elusive, policymakers face a pressing question: what form of cooperation can replace the postwar hegemon-led, rules-based system? This column examines two complementary answers. Mark Carney argues that coalitions of middle powers can preserve stability, resilience, and strategic autonomy in an era of great-power rivalry.…

2 min Read
Macro & Trade July 18, 2026

The macroeconomic impact of the Recovery and Resilience Facility: An analysis for Italy, Spain, and Greece

The EU Recovery and Resilience Facility was launched to support post-Covid recovery while accelerating structural transformation through investment and reform. This column provides a preliminary descriptive assessment of the macroeconomic impact of the facility in Italy, Greece, and Spain, three countries with large allocations. Using simple counterfactual comparisons, it presents evidence consistent with a positive…

1 min Read
Macro & Trade July 15, 2026

The Narrow Path: How Europe Can Welcome the Displaced Without Feeding the Populists Who Oppose It

Every wave of large-scale migration into Europe over the past decade has produced the same split-screen: images of families fleeing war or starvation arriving with nothing, alongside the rapid rise of political movements built substantially around opposing their arrival. Both halves of that image are real. The humanitarian case for taking in people fleeing Syria’s […]

9 min Read
Macro & Trade July 15, 2026

The Missing Piece: Why Europe’s Decision-Making Speed May Matter More Than Any Single Strategy

Every essay in this series has described a different front in the same broader project — energy, minerals, industry, chips, AI, telecommunications, finance, health, food, education, labor, infrastructure, space, cyber defense, and trade. Each one, examined on its own, has a plausible path forward. But there is a reason so many of these efforts — […]

9 min Read
Digital & AI July 15, 2026

Spreading the Bet: Europe’s Trade Strategy for a Multipolar World

This final essay is really the connecting thread running through every one before it. Energy diversification, mineral partnerships in Africa and South America, chip fab locations, food import sources — all of them are, at their core, expressions of a single underlying strategic instinct: don’t let any single country hold enough leverage over Europe to […]

5 min Read
Macro & Trade July 15, 2026

Europe’s Final Frontier: Strategic Independence in Space

Space has quietly become as critical to daily life as electricity or telecommunications — satellite navigation guides everything from farm equipment to financial transaction timestamps, satellite imagery informs military planning and climate monitoring alike, and launch capability determines who gets to put any of it into orbit in the first place. Europe built real strength […]

4 min Read
Macro & Trade July 15, 2026

Wiring the Continent Together: Building One Integrated European Market

Every strategy described so far in this series — energy, industry, chips, AI, finance, talent — assumes something that doesn’t yet fully exist: a Europe that functions as one connected market rather than 27 separate national ones stitched together by treaties. Goods, power, data, and people still move across European borders less freely than the […]

5 min Read
Clean Tech July 15, 2026

The Missing Workers: How Europe Can Close Its Skills Gap

Every ambition in this series — more chip fabs, nuclear plants, wind farms, factories, AI labs — ultimately runs into the same wall: someone has to build, operate, and maintain it, and Europe is short on exactly the people it needs most. Aging populations across much of the continent mean the workforce is shrinking even […]

4 min Read