Home alone: Europeans are ready to defend themselves

Summary — “Home alone: Europeans are ready to defend themselves” (ECFR, Jana Kobzová & Paweł Zerka, 10 June 2026)

A major ECFR poll (19,481 respondents, 15 countries, May 2026) finds European public opinion has hardened into a “home alone” mindset: trust in the US as an ally has collapsed to just 11% (from 22% in November 2024), with majorities in every country doubting America would defend them if attacked, even as most still expect the transatlantic relationship to eventually improve post-Trump. Europeans broadly back higher defence spending, an independent European nuclear deterrent, “buy European” procurement, and joint debt to fund it — though a plurality resist trading off other public spending for defence. On Ukraine, support remains strong but shallow: most oppose sending troops post-war and there’s no consensus on near-term EU accession, even among frontline states, while far-right voters increasingly see Ukraine as a rival. On energy, despite the Iran-war price shock, most Europeans firmly reject renewed Russian fossil-fuel imports and back prioritizing home-grown renewables instead. The authors frame this as a mature, “ahead of their leaders” electorate handing policymakers a rare mandate for strategic autonomy, defense investment and energy sovereignty — but warn the window is closing fast given a wave of 2027 elections and rising economic anxiety.

A major ECFR poll finds the European public, in a time of rupture, thinking differently and questioning old assumptions. It reveals new political space available to their leaders (for now) and challenges them to use it

Source: ECFR Publications · June 9, 2026