If Bardella wins: Scenarios for a far-right presidency in France

Summary — “If Bardella wins: Scenarios for a far-right presidency in France” (ECFR, Célia Belin, Jeremy Cliffe, Camille Lons & Constance Victor, 9 June 2026)

This policy brief uses a fictional but research-grounded scenario to imagine the first year of a Jordan Bardella (National Rally) presidency, following France’s 2027 election. Based on interviews with senior RN figures, it explores how Bardella would likely try to build a “union of the right” domestically and in Europe, clash with Brussels and Berlin over energy pricing, migration policy, EU budget contributions and enlargement, and pursue an ambiguous, improvised foreign policy shaped by tension between his more pragmatic instincts and Marine Le Pen’s harder Euroscepticism. It depicts likely flashpoints including opting out of EU electricity pricing, a referendum on leaving the EU migration pact, resistance to Ukraine’s EU accession and further Russia sanctions, and a chaotic response to a NATO Article 4-triggering crisis (a Baltic GPS-spoofing incident). The scenario concludes that an RN presidency would leave France increasingly isolated even within a more right-leaning Europe, undermining rather than strengthening EU cohesion. The brief urges European partners — Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, the UK — to prepare pragmatically, expect limited common ground (mainly on defense, technology and trade), and be ready to build coalitions with or without France.

Jordan Bardella is the frontrunner in the French presidential election next year. His win would transform France’s place in Europe. This scenario shows how

Source: ECFR Publications · June 9, 2026