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Macro & Trade

Research and insights on European resilience in Macro & Trade.

Macro & Trade July 14, 2026

Breaking the Bottleneck: Europe’s Path to Raw Materials Independence

If the gas crisis taught Europe the danger of depending on a single hostile supplier, the next vulnerability is quieter but arguably deeper: raw materials and critical minerals. Lithium, cobalt, rare earth elements, and dozens of other inputs used in batteries, wind turbines, electric motors, and semiconductors flow through supply chains overwhelmingly controlled or processed […]

5 min Read
Macro & Trade July 8, 2026

The EU’s Recovery and Resilience Facility: Experience and lessons for the next multiannual financial framework

The EU’s Recovery and Resilience Facility has become a central test case for performance-based fiscal policy. Its experience offers lessons for the design of the next Multiannual Financial Framework. This column reviews evidence on the facility’s economic impact, implementation, and use of milestones and targets. It argues that the facility has supported demand, helped advance…

1 min Read
Defense July 8, 2026

The economic footprint of Europe’s defence build-up

Defence policy is usually discussed as a national security issue, but its economic effects are often highly local. This column presents new evidence from 1,011 regions in 15 European countries suggesting that places hosting defence production and supply chain activity have a larger economic footprint than comparable places without such activity: they enjoy higher income…

1 min Read
Macro & Trade July 4, 2026

The price of delay: How supply chain disruptions spread into consumer prices

Supply chain disruptions have become a recurring feature of recent economic dynamics and an increasing concern in inflation policy discussions. This column argues that inflationary effects of these disruptions operate through more than higher import and transportation costs: when supply-chain bottlenecks make products harder to replenish, firms’ pricing power increases, and these price increases are…

1 min Read
Defense July 4, 2026

Sliding doors: One Trump crisis, two possible futures for Europe

The next Trump crisis will come. European governments facing American pressure will need to weigh the costs and benefits of their responses. Here are two scenarios to show what resistance costs, and why those costs are lower than they appear

1 min Read
Digital & AI July 4, 2026

Mitigate, deter, escalate: Europe’s options against US economic coercion

The US under Trump will seek new ways to coerce Europe economically. Here is how Europeans can resist the pressure and emerge stronger for it.

1 min Read
Clean Tech July 4, 2026

Home alone: Europeans are ready to defend themselves

A major ECFR poll finds the European public, in a time of rupture, thinking differently and questioning old assumptions. It reveals new political space available to their leaders (for now) and challenges them to use it

1 min Read
Defense July 4, 2026

If Bardella wins: Scenarios for a far-right presidency in France

Jordan Bardella is the frontrunner in the French presidential election next year. His win would transform France’s place in Europe. This scenario shows how

1 min Read
Clean Tech July 4, 2026

The new climate battle: Five deals to recharge the green transition

As climate policy becomes increasingly contested, Europe must adapt its Green Deal to a new political era. The first policy brief in the New Politics project outlines five new deals to make the transition more durable, popular and politically resilient.

1 min Read
Critical Minerals July 4, 2026

The art of the swarm: Systemic rivalry with China on European terms

The EU can exploit its system to say no to China—now, and long into the future

1 min Read