Rebuilding the world order: Two strategies for a fragmented world

Summary:

Title: Rebuilding the World Order: Two Strategies for a Fragmented World

The postwar international order is collapsing under the weight of geopolitical rivalry, weakened rules, and the weaponization of economic interdependence. As universal consensus becomes unattainable, policymakers must choose between two complementary yet distinct strategies to restore stability and cooperation:

Middle-Power Strategy (Mark Carney):
- Core Idea: Middle powers (e.g., Canada, Australia) must abandon reliance on a U.S.-led rules-based system and instead form flexible, issue-specific coalitions to counter great-power coercion.
- Focus: Strategic autonomy, resilience, and renewal of the old order through “variable geometry”—tailored alliances for trade, supply chains, AI governance, and energy security.
- Key Tools: Domestic economic diversification, trusted partnerships, and pragmatic, sectoral agreements.
Pivotal-Power Strategy (Dennis Snower):
- Core Idea: Global challenges (climate change, AI, pandemics) demand polycentric governance—coalitions built around functional necessity rather than political affinity.
- Focus: Human flourishing (SAGE: Solidarity, Agency, Gain, Environmental sustainability) as the normative foundation, with capacity alignment (public/private capabilities) and policy alignment (cross-sector coordination).
- Key Tools: Modular, enforceable agreements with guardrails (transparency, peer review, conditional benefits), open to accession by pivotal actors (states, firms, cities, civil society).

Why This Matters for Europe’s Future

The article underscores a critical choice for Europe:

Middle-Power Approach: Align with like-minded democracies to defend strategic autonomy (e.g., EU supply-chain resilience, defence cooperation).
Pivotal-Power Approach: Lead issue-specific coalitions (e.g., climate, migration, digital governance) that include non-traditional actors (e.g., African nations, tech firms, cities) to address systemic challenges without waiting for universal consensus.

Actionable Insight:
Europe can combine both strategies:

Use middle-power coalitions to shield against U.S./China/Russia dominance (e.g., critical minerals alliances, AI governance standards).
Adopt pivotal-power frameworks to solve global problems (e.g., climate finance, migration compacts) by leveraging its regulatory capacity, market access, and normative legitimacy.

Urgency: The window to design a resilient, capability-based order—one that balances realism with collective problem-solving—is closing. The future belongs to those who can orchestrate both trust and enforcement.

As the postwar international order fragments and universal agreement becomes increasingly elusive, policymakers face a pressing question: what form of cooperation can replace the postwar hegemon-led, rules-based system? This column examines two complementary answers. Mark Carney argues that coalitions of middle powers can preserve stability, resilience, and strategic autonomy in an era of great-power rivalry.…