The price of delay: How supply chain disruptions spread into consumer prices

Summary — “The price of delay: How supply chain disruptions spread into consumer prices” (CEPR VoxEU, Salomé Baslandze & Simon Fuchs, 2 July 2026)

This column presents new research showing that supply-chain disruptions raise consumer prices through more than just higher import and freight costs. Using matched US maritime shipment data (Panjiva) and itemized consumer transaction data (Numerator), the authors find that delivery shortfalls that make products harder to replenish increase firms’ pricing power, and these price increases are further amplified by strategic responses to competitors’ disruptions. Their preferred estimates show delivery-shortfall pass-through to consumer prices of roughly 0.25–0.27, comparable to the pass-through from import and freight cost shocks — and this effect grows the longer disruptions persist. Critically, they find a “competitor spillover” effect: firms raise prices by about half as much (0.11–0.13) when their rivals face delivery shortfalls, even including firms with no direct import exposure, because scarcity among competitors relaxes competitive pressure. The authors conclude these strategic pricing spillovers substantially amplified inflation in the pandemic aftermath, and recommend that policymakers track delivery shortfalls and port congestion alongside costs, invest in supply-chain resilience (port capacity, warehousing, logistics diversification), and preserve market contestability to limit how disruptions translate into broader price pressure.

Supply chain disruptions have become a recurring feature of recent economic dynamics and an increasing concern in inflation policy discussions. This column argues that inflationary effects of these disruptions operate through more than higher import and transportation costs: when supply-chain bottlenecks make products harder to replenish, firms’ pricing power increases, and these price increases are…

Source: CEPR / VoxEU · July 1, 2026