Brexit isn’t working: British voters are ready for a European future

Summary — “Brexit isn’t working: British voters are ready for a European future” (ECFR, Mark Leonard, 21 June 2026)

New ECFR/Mandate-YouGov polling, timed to the tenth anniversary of the 2016 referendum, finds British public opinion has shifted dramatically toward Europe. Majorities now say Brexit damaged the cost of living, the economy, opportunities for young people and even immigration control — and 75% want a closer UK-EU relationship (just 8% want more distance), including majorities of Leave voters on several measures. Brits increasingly trust EU states over the US on security, with pluralities backing shared intelligence, a “Buy European” defence policy, joint EU debt for defence, and even UK participation in a European army or nuclear deterrent — attitudes ECFR attributes to Trump’s erratic second term, Russia’s war in Ukraine, and “China shock 2.0.” The old “leaver/remainer” split has been replaced by three new voter groups: “Optimists” (28%, pro-EU and geopolitically aware), “Realists” (35%, open but pragmatic/cost-driven) and “Loners” (27%, want distance, concentrated in Reform UK). When asked directly, full EU membership (33%) is now the single most popular preferred outcome, ahead of a Norway-style deal or a new treaty. European public and elite opinion (France, Spain, Finland, the Greens) is also shown to be increasingly receptive to UK reintegration. The paper urges UK politicians to move past 2016-era framing and build a pragmatic, ambitious consensus on a new EU relationship.

Ten years on from the referendum, the British electorate has moved on from its old divisions and—in a world of crisis—is embracing an ambitious move back towards the European Union

Source: ECFR Publications · June 20, 2026