Managed disorder: The hard road to a modest peace with Russia after Ukraine

Summary

Title: Managed Disorder: The Hard Road to a Modest Peace with Russia After Ukraine

The Challenge

The war in Ukraine will likely end not with a comprehensive peace but with a fragile ceasefire, leaving Russia, Europe, and the U.S. locked in a low-grade, chaotic rivalry for years. The absence of a genuine settlement—on sovereignty, security, or territorial integrity—will create a dangerous limbo where miscalculation, hybrid warfare, or political instability could reignite conflict. Europe, as the most exposed actor, must lead efforts to prevent escalation without rewarding aggression, while the U.S., distracted by China and domestic priorities, will remain an indispensable but unreliable partner.

The Solution: “Managed Disorder”

To avert a return to war, the West must transition from uncontrolled confrontation to a structured rivalry—a state where hostility persists but is contained by rules, verification, and conditional incentives. This framework relies on three pillars:

Credible Deterrence
- Ukraine must emerge as a “steel porcupine”: defensively strong enough to deter further Russian invasions (e.g., via Western arms, joint defense production, and fortified positions) but not configured for offensive operations that could provoke Moscow.
- NATO’s role must avoid direct confrontation while ensuring Ukraine’s survival through sustained military aid, intelligence sharing, and sanctions enforcement.
Compartmentalized Cooperation
- Issue-specific dialogues (e.g., Black Sea security, grain exports, nuclear safety) must proceed without legitimizing Russian territorial gains or linking them to broader NATO-Russia negotiations.
- Turkey (as a Black Sea gatekeeper) and China (as Russia’s economic lifeline) must be integrated as stakeholders—not as mediators, but as actors whose interests align with stability (e.g., China’s access to European markets depends on predictability).
Conditional and Reversible Incentives
- For Russia: Sanctions relief must be tied to observable compliance (e.g., ceasefire adherence, no hybrid attacks) and automatically reinstated if violations occur. Economic reintegration should be selective and gradual, targeting sectors (e.g., energy, travel) that create domestic constituencies for restraint.
- For Ukraine: Accelerated EU accession, reconstruction funding, and defense-industrial cooperation must be contingent on cooperation with the framework. Obstruction risks isolation and stagnation.
- For Europe: A “core group” (France, Germany, Poland, UK, Nordics, Baltics) must pre-negotiate responses to Russian provocations to prevent paralysis from internal divisions.

Why This Matters for Europe

Avoiding American Abandonment or Freelancing
- The U.S. will prioritize China and may seek bilateral deals with Russia at Europe’s expense. Europe must design a system that functions even with waning U.S. focus, ensuring deterrence and economic leverage remain European-led.
Preventing European Fragmentation
- Divides between eastern states (prioritizing deterrence) and western states (prioritizing stability) risk Russian exploitation. Managed disorder requires:
  - Separate negotiation tracks: One for Ukraine’s security (with Kyiv as a principal), another for broader Russia-NATO tensions.
  - Automaticity: Pre-agreed responses to violations (e.g., snapback sanctions) to depoliticize crises.
Long-Term Stability Over Illusory Peace
- A frozen conflict is inevitable, but unmanaged disorder invites escalation. The goal is to channel rivalry into predictable competition, where:
  - Russia faces higher costs for aggression than for compliance.
  - Ukraine gains a credible path to reconstruction and eventual territorial restoration (via economic integration, legal non-recognition of annexations, and long-term power shifts).
  - Europe avoids permanent militarization while preserving strategic autonomy.

The Stakes

Failure to implement this framework risks:

A second Ukraine war triggered by ambiguity (e.g., Russian “repositioning” of troops, hybrid attacks).
European disunity becoming a Russian tool to erode sanctions, divide NATO, and normalize occupation.
China’s tacit enabling of Russian revisionism, as Beijing balances between economic access to Europe and geopolitical alignment with Moscow.

The Path Forward:
Europe must act now to:

Institutionalize deterrence (e.g., EU defense production, joint procurement).
Design incentives that make cooperation the rational choice for Ukraine, Russia, and even China.
Accept modest goals: A modest peace—not a grand bargain—is the only realistic outcome. The alternative is perpetual crisis.

When the fighting in Ukraine stops, America and Europe will likely end up facing Russia in a low-grade rivalry for years to come. Here is how to prevent that disordered rivalry from sliding into another war