The art of the swarm: Systemic rivalry with China on European terms

Summary — “The art of the swarm: Systemic rivalry with China on European terms” (ECFR, Andrew Small, 17 June 2026)

This policy brief argues Europe must stop responding to Chinese economic coercion one sector at a time and instead turn its regulatory system itself into strategic leverage. China’s overcapacity, subsidies, and deepening dependencies are hollowing out European industry — the French planning agency estimates a third of German exports and two-thirds of German domestic production are directly threatened, with Rhodium Group putting half of German manufacturing jobs at risk. Rather than copying US-style tariffs or Chinese-style state direction (both unsuited to the EU’s structure), the paper proposes six conditions of market access — the “Six Nos”: no double standards, no rigged competition, no monopolies, no backdoors, no black boxes, no threat enablers. Since the EU’s major new instruments (Industrial Accelerator Act, Cyber Security Act revisions) are years from full implementation, it recommends a “swarm” strategy: deploying many small, simultaneous measures (safeguards, subsidy investigations, procurement rules) that are individually too minor to invite Chinese retaliation but collectively significant, rather than one large, politically costly measure like an across-the-board tariff. It also calls for coalition-building within Europe (a Nordic-Baltic-Polish security vanguard, aligned national subsidy criteria) and beyond (UK, Japan, Korea, India), and urges the EU to treat moments of Chinese coercion as opportunities to activate tools like the Anti-Coercion Instrument and build lasting institutional capacity.ore publishing. The block below is an excerpt and attribution only.

The EU can exploit its system to say no to China—now, and long into the future

Source: ECFR Publications · June 17, 2026