One foot out: Understanding Bulgaria’s geopolitical shift under Radev

Summary: “Bulgaria’s Geopolitical Drift and the Urgency of European Unity”

The article “One foot out: Understanding Bulgaria’s geopolitical shift under Radev” by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) highlights a concerning trend: Bulgaria, under Prime Minister Rumen Radev, is adopting a transactional and hedging foreign policy that risks undermining European unity. Radev’s recent decisions—such as withdrawing Bulgaria from the European Coalition of the Willing (CoW) for Ukraine while simultaneously agreeing to host US refueling tankers at Bezmer Air Base—expose a strategic inconsistency that prioritizes bilateral deals with external powers over alignment with European security interests.

This shift is not merely a Bulgarian issue; it reflects a broader challenge for Europe. As the Trump administration’s transactional diplomacy encourages bilateral arrangements, some European governments may be tempted to prioritize short-term gains with Washington or other external actors over long-term investment in European collective defense. Such behavior weakens the EU’s ability to act cohesively, particularly at a time when strategic coordination is critical.

Key Insights and Takeaways

1. Bulgaria’s Hedging Strategy: A Risk to European Cohesion

Radev’s approach is characterized by strategic ambiguity. By withdrawing from the CoW for Ukraine while supporting US operations in the Middle East, Bulgaria seeks to preserve US security guarantees without committing to Europe’s evolving security architecture. This position is politically expedient but strategically unsound. It reflects a growing trend in Europe where member states cherry-pick cooperation based on domestic political convenience rather than aligning with a unified European stance.

Withdrawal from the CoW for Ukraine: Radev argued that military support for Ukraine would prolong the war and that Bulgaria lacks the resources to contribute. This decision contradicts earlier parliamentary votes and ignores the broader European consensus on supporting Ukraine.
Hosting US Refueling Tankers: The deployment of US aircraft at Bezmer Air Base, linked to discussions on Bulgaria’s inclusion in the US Visa Waiver Program, demonstrates Bulgaria’s willingness to prioritize bilateral deals with Washington over European solidarity.
Delisting Russian Oligarchs: Bulgaria’s recent move to remove Russian oligarchs and a Russian patriarch from the EU’s 21st sanctions package signals growing Russian influence in Sofia, further complicating Bulgaria’s alignment with European priorities.

2. The Broader European Challenge

Bulgaria’s actions are not isolated. They reflect a fragmented European security landscape where individual member states increasingly pursue transactional relationships with external powers—whether the US, Russia, or China—rather than investing in European unity. This trend is particularly dangerous as Europe faces:

Rising nationalism and populism, which may gain further ground in the 2027 European elections, constraining the political space for pro-European governments.
External powers exploiting divisions, as seen in Bulgaria’s case, where Russia and the US leverage institutional weaknesses to advance their own agendas.
A weakening of collective defense mechanisms, such as the EU’s Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) and the European Defence Fund, which rely on member states’ commitment to shared security goals.

3. The EU’s Response: Engagement and Incentives

The ECFR argues that the EU must actively engage with Bulgaria to counter Radev’s hedging strategy. Rather than treating Bulgaria as a lost cause, the EU should:

Push back on hedging behaviors by reinforcing the political and practical incentives for participation in common defense initiatives. This includes leveraging the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) and other European defense instruments to reward alignment with European priorities.
Reduce opportunities for external interference by strengthening EU institutions and closing loopholes that allow external powers (e.g., Russia, China, or the US) to exploit divisions.
Treat Bulgaria as an urgent political case, recognizing that its drift could set a precedent for other member states. The EU must demonstrate that European solidarity is not optional but a necessity for long-term security and prosperity.

4. The Stakes for Europe’s Future

Bulgaria’s geopolitical shift underscores a critical question: Can Europe afford to have member states that are only selectively committed to collective defense? The answer must be a resounding no. A Europe where member states prioritize bilateral deals over shared security is a Europe that will struggle to:

Deter aggression from external threats, whether from Russia, China, or other adversaries.
Maintain credibility as a global actor capable of shaping international norms and defending its interests.
Achieve strategic autonomy, a goal that requires unity, coordination, and shared investment in defense, industry, and technology.

A European Call to Action

Bulgaria’s current trajectory is a wake-up call for Europe. The EU cannot afford to allow member states to opt in and out of collective defense based on short-term political calculations. Instead, Europe must:

Strengthen Incentives for Cooperation
The EU should tie financial and political benefits (e.g., access to EU funds, leadership roles in European institutions) to active participation in common defense initiatives. Member states that contribute to European security should be rewarded, while those that hedge or undermine collective efforts should face political and financial consequences.
Close Loopholes for External Influence
The EU must tighten sanctions enforcement, ensure transparency in defense agreements with external powers, and limit the ability of third countries to exploit divisions within the Union. This includes addressing cases like Bulgaria’s delisting of Russian oligarchs, which undermine European solidarity.
Reinforce the Value of European Unity
The EU should communicate more effectively the long-term benefits of collective defense, both in terms of security and economic prosperity. A united Europe is a stronger Europe—one that can negotiate from a position of strength with external powers, deter aggression, and shape global norms.
Prepare for Political Shifts
With major elections in 2027 potentially bringing more nationalist governments to power, the EU must act now to solidify its defense and foreign policy frameworks. This includes:
- Accelerating defense integration through PESCO, the European Defence Fund, and joint procurement initiatives.
- Developing a European Security Doctrine that clearly outlines the expectations and obligations of member states.
- Enhancing strategic autonomy in critical sectors (e.g., energy, technology, defense industry) to reduce dependence on external powers.
Engage with Bulgaria as a Test Case
Bulgaria’s actions provide an opportunity for the EU to demonstrate its resolve in defending collective interests. The EU should:
- Open a dialogue with Radev’s government to clarify Bulgaria’s long-term strategic orientation.
- Offer incentives for Bulgaria to re-engage with European defense initiatives, such as accelerated access to EU funds or enhanced roles in European security structures.
- Apply pressure if Bulgaria continues to undermine European unity, including public criticism, diplomatic isolation, or financial penalties.

Conclusion: Unity as Europe’s Greatest Strength

Bulgaria’s geopolitical shift is a symptom of a larger challenge: a Europe that is increasingly fractured by nationalism, transactional diplomacy, and external interference. To counter this, the EU must reassert the value of unity and ensure that member states understand that their security and prosperity are inextricably linked to Europe’s collective strength.

The path forward is clear: Europe must act decisively to reinforce solidarity, close loopholes for external influence, and incentivize cooperation. Failure to do so risks a future where Europe is divided, weakened, and unable to defend its interests in an increasingly competitive world. The choice is stark—a Europe that stands together or a Europe that falls apart. For the sake of peace, prosperity, and strategic autonomy, the former is the only viable option.

Rumen Radev is steering Bulgaria towards a more transactional foreign policy. The EU needs to engage with Sofia and push back on such hedging to secure future European cohesion